Is Your “Safe” Portfolio Actually Built to Fail?

Darius Dale joined Anthony Pompliano on The Pomp Podcast to unpack three major shifts in today’s macro environment. He challenged the idea that bonds and cash are safe, highlighted the decline in foreign demand for U.S. debt, and outlined why the current regime still supports staying engaged in select risk assets. If you missed the discussion, here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio:

1) Fiscal Recklessness Is Undermining U.S. Stability

Both parties are spending aggressively with no credible plan to rein in deficits. Even cutting all non-defense discretionary spending would only reduce the deficit from 7% to 5% of GDP—before the tax cuts reduce revenues (relative to baseline) further. With mounting debt and no political appetite for austerity, the long-term fiscal trajectory looks increasingly fragile.

Key Takeaway: Washington’s fiscal mismanagement is weakening U.S. credit quality and leaving fewer tools to manage future crises.

2) There Is A Geopolitically Driven Supply-Demand Imbalance In Treasuries

Foreign demand for Treasuries is fading. China, Europe, and Japan are pulling back due to strategic decoupling, re-militarization, and policy normalization, respectively. Meanwhile, assets traditionally considered “risky”—like Bitcoin, gold, and stocks—are outperforming.

Key Takeaway: As markets trudge deeper into this Fourth Turning regime, traditional “risk” assets are actually the safe havens. The real risk lies in holding bonds and cash.

3) Follow the Signals, Not the Headlines

Darius’s message is clear: stay engaged while the market regime supports it. With policymakers boxed into growing or printing their way out of structural imbalances, disciplined exposure to select risk assets is more important than ever. 42 Macro’s KISS framework equips investors to sidestep behavioral traps and compound more effectively over time.

Key Takeaway: Avoid volatility drag and compound returns faster by remaining invested in traditional “risk” assets and only reducing exposure when the market regime tell you to.

Final Thought: The Fourth Turning Is Here

With bonds and the dollar failing to preserve capital, the definition of “safe” has changed. As the U.S. consumes an unsustainable share of global capital and shows little political will for fiscal repair, investors must rethink where real protection lies. The true risk isn’t volatility—it’s being stuck in assets with negative expected returns. As Darius notes, the Fourth Turning is more than a cycle—it’s the new investment reality.

If you are not confident your portfolio is positioned correctly for the evolving macro landscape, partner with 42 Macro for data-driven insights and proven risk management overlays—KISS and Dr. Mo—to help you stay on the right side of market risk.

THE MACRO CLASS

No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.

Best of luck out there,

— Team 42

Printing Toward the Fourth Turning

Darius Dale joined Victor Hugo Rodriguez on Negocios TV to break down the macro forces shaping today’s investment landscape. He reaffirmed our Paradigm C thesis—anchored in pro-growth policy and continued fiscal largesse—and explained why many investors remain underexposed to the assets most likely to benefit. If you missed the discussion, here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio:

1) Three Key Risks: Growth, Gridlock, and Misunderstood Tariffs

Darius flagged three downside risks in the near term: a policy-induced growth slowdown, legislative gridlock over the expanding reconciliation bill, and fears regarding trade negotiations and tariffs.

Key Takeaway: Each of these negative catalysts is unlikely to be a significant and/or durable headwind for asset markets—especially as Paradigm C continues to play out. We view them as scarecrows to be faded by every investor with a time horizon that extends past this summer.

2) Paradigm C Will Drive Explosive Long-Term Upside in Gold and Bitcoin

Darius reinforced his conviction in Paradigm C—a scenario in which the U.S. attempts to grow its way out of a worsening debt-to-GDP ratio through a combination of fiscal and monetary largesse, deregulation, and reshoring. With U.S. fiscal dominance growing and foreign demand for Treasuries from Europe, Japan, and China declining, the Fed will eventually be forced to fill the gap. This supply-demand imbalance, he argues, is the macro foundation for his bold calls that gold will triple to $10,000 and Bitcoin will appreciate 10x to $1 million over the next ~decade.

Key Takeaway: Investors should treat gold and Bitcoin as long-term core positions to capitalize on the inevitable monetization of U.S. debt amid structural fiscal deterioration and the geopolitically driven supply-demand imbalance in the Treasury bond market.

3) Real Estate Freeze with Rising Prices

Darius warns that tight supply, credit easing, and tariffs on building materials may drive home prices higher even as transaction volumes stay frozen. The result: worsening affordability and a potential political flashpoint in the next few years.

Key Takeaway: Expect home prices to rise again as credit easing revives demand, while policy constraints throttle supply on both the existing and new home fronts.

Final Thought: Positioning for a Macro Regime Built on Growth

Paradigm C continues to unfold, bringing with it both asymmetric upside and structural challenges. Darius urges investors to look beyond short-term noise and position for durable right tail risk for risk assets, especially in stocks, gold, Bitcoin—the three asset classes featured in 42 Macro’s KISS Portfolio.

While political volatility may introduce near-term headwinds, the broader policy regime favors growth and asset reflation. Staying systematic and forward-looking will be essential to capitalizing on this historic shift.

THE MACRO CLASS

No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.

Best of luck out there,

— Team 42

Is Your Portfolio Properly Positioned For Paradigm C?

Darius Dale joined Michael Kantrowitz on What’s Next For Markets to unpack the stark contrast between institutional macro risk management and social media macro, our Paradigm C investment thesis, and what Paradigm C implies for asset markets amid a generally under-invested buy side. If you missed the discussion, here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio:

1) From Wall Street to Main Street and Back Again

Darius starts by explaining how his unusually humble beginnings was the primary motivation for starting 42 Macro—whose mission is to democratize top-tier institutional macro risk management for the masses. After years of making wealthy clients wealthier at a major research firm, he set out to build a firm where both institutional and retail investors receive high-quality insights at the same time—all for affordable rates that don’t price Main Street out of the market like Wall Street continues to do.

Key Takeaway: 42 Macro’s mission is grounded in access and transparency—offering systematic risk overlays, deeply researched insights, and quality education equally to the many of the top PMs and CIOs across global Wall Street and everyday retail investors alike.

2) Embracing Systematic Discipline After a Personal Wake-Up Call

A painful squeeze throughout Q4 2022 became a turning point for Darius, and he shifted from discretionary macro trading to fully embracing his firm’s systematic signals (KISS and Dr. Mo). While such a dramatic process pivot would be difficult for any investor’s ego to stomach, it significantly increased the value 42 Macro creates for its clients and cemented Darius’ commitment to humility and listening to the market 100% of the time.

Key Takeaway: Success in macro investing isn’t about being right—it’s about staying on the right side of market risk. Check your ego and legacy research views at the door if you want to accomplish this goal.

3) Paradigm C: Stop Myopically Focusing On Tariffs; The Economy Is Likely To Boom

Darius outlines his thesis that the Trump administration has pivoted away from a disruptive Paradigm B (fiscal austerity and maximalist tariffs that incentivize de-globalization) toward a more Wall Street-palatable Paradigm C—combining fiscal largesse, deregulation, and limited tariffs that incentivize some reshoring. While the media unduly focuses on tariffs, the broader regime is structurally bullish for risk assets—particularly stocks, gold, and Bitcoin—and structurally bearish for bonds and the U.S. dollar.

Key Takeaway: Introduced in mid-to-late April, our Paradigm C thesis represents a durable positive shock to growth, and investors are broadly under-positioned for the associated upside risks.

Final Thought: Paradigm C Is the New Macro Roadmap—And 42 Macro Is Your Compass

Paradigm C isn’t a passing phase—it’s the structural backdrop investors must embrace. Fiscal dominance, deregulation, and supply-side reshoring are here to stay, reshaping asset class performance and capital flows. Success in this new regime isn’t about being right—it’s about managing risk systematically, staying humble, and avoiding bearish confirmation bias.

That’s the mission of 42 Macro: to bring institutional-grade insights and systematic discipline to every investor—retail or professional—so they or their clients can retire on time and comfortably.

THE MACRO CLASS

No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.

Best of luck out there,

— Team 42

Paradigm C: A Playbook For Risk-On Investing

Darius Dale joined Charles Payne on Fox Business Network to explain why markets are embracing his Paradigm C thesis—which is a pro-growth blend of excessive government spending, tax cuts, deregulation, and strategic reshoring. If you missed the discussion, here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio:

1) Paradigm C = Paradigm A + Tax Cuts, Deregulation, And Strategic Reshoring

Darius reiterates our economic framework—Paradigms A, B, and C—to help investors understand evolving macro conditions. Paradigm A (Biden-era excessive government spending) produced a K-shaped economy, boosting wealth for upper-income households and businesses while leaving the bottom half behind. Paradigm B, feared by markets, implies painful but potentially equitable restructuring via tariffs and fiscal austerity. Paradigm C, however, is emerging as the likely path forward.

Key Takeaway: Paradigm C builds on Paradigm A’s excessive government spending with added tax cuts, deregulation, and strategic reshoring—boosting Wall Street without demanding the sacrifices required for a more-equitable outcome for Main Street.

2) Paradigm C Is Structurally Bullish For Risk Assets And Structurally Bearish For Defensive Assets

Paradigm C creates a bullish backdrop for risk assets. Investors can expect structural tailwinds for stocks, credit, and crypto—while defensive assets like U.S. Treasuries and the dollar face growing headwinds. Darius notes that Bitcoin is already up 17% month-to-date and up 30% since KISS bought Bitcoin back on April 14—signs that markets are already pricing in this regime shift.

Key Takeaway: An even bigger K-shaped economy means a bigger bull case. Although Paradigm C’s gains are skewed to the top like they were in Paradigm A, risk assets are the beneficiaries of both paradigms.

3) Bond Volatility Is A Feature, Not A Bug, Of Paradigm C

With bond yields rising, military budgets expanding, and deficits ballooning, hiccups in the Treasury market—like the recent sloppy 20-year bond auction—are inevitable. But investors should view these as noise, not signal.

Key Takeaway: Don’t fear higher rates—focus on staying long risk assets. Cross-asset volatility emanating from the bond market represent buying opportunities for risk assets in Paradigm C.

Final Thought: Don’t Fight Paradigm C; Embrace It If You Want To Retire On Time And Comfortably

Paradigm C reflects the political realities of the Fourth Turning: fiscal dominance is here to stay amid demands for populism and increased defense and border spending from Main Street amid demands for debt-financed tax cuts and deregulation from Wall Street. For investors, the message is clear—investors should be generally overweight risk assets and underweight defensive assets until something changes. As Darius put it: “When in doubt, think Paradigm C—and buy the dip.”

THE MACRO CLASS

No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.

Best of luck out there,

— Team 42

The New Economic Game: Statecraft, Strategy, and Structural Change

Darius Dale sat down with Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank, for a detailed conversation about America’s pivot toward neo-mercantilism and the future of economic statecraft. If you missed the discussion, here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio:

1) Trump Isn’t Bluffing—This Is a Grand Strategy

Every argues that President Trump’s policies aren’t random or chaotic as many investors believe. They reflect a deep-rooted neo-mercantilist ideology: prioritize domestic production, run trade surpluses, and wield economic statecraft as a geopolitical weapon. Every calls it “grand macro strategy”—and it’s already happening.

Key Takeaway: This is a full-spectrum pivot to production, power, and strategic autonomy—not campaign rhetoric.

2) Earnings Will Be the Cost of Redistribution

Forget rate hikes. The new inflation control is margin compression. Industries with pricing power—defense, pharma, education—are already under the knife. If labor’s share of national income rises, capital’s will fall.

Key Takeaway: Every believes investors should prepare for a world of lower corporate margins and structurally rebalanced income shares. Wall Street won’t like it—but Main Street might.

3) Capital Flows Are the Real Warfront

Everyone’s focused on tariffs. But the real action is in the capital account. The U.S. exports financial assets to fund its lifestyle—Treasuries, equities, corporate debt. If we’re shifting to a production-based model with structurally lower margins and rising populism, global investors will think twice.

Key Takeaway: If capital outflows accelerate, expect bond yields to spike and markets to shake.

Final Thought: The Game Has Changed—Act Accordingly

Per Every, what we’re witnessing isn’t political noise—it’s structural. Every urges that Neo-mercantilism, industrial policy, capital controls, statecraft as economic strategy: these aren’t short-term tactics. They mark a fundamental shift in how the U.S. engages with the world and manages its own economy. Whether or not this experiment succeeds, the old playbook of globalization, financialization, and laissez-faire orthodoxy is being replaced.

THE MACRO CLASS

No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.

Best of luck out there,

— Team 42

System Change, Bitcoin, And The Future of Money

Darius Dale sat down with Jeff Booth, entrepreneur and author of The Price of Tomorrow, for a deep and urgent conversation on what a genuine system change would look like in today’s rapidly evolving economic and technological landscape. If you missed the discussion, here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio:

1) The Free Market Is Naturally Deflationary

Booth argues a true free market drives prices lower. Entrepreneurs compete by delivering more value, pushing prices toward the marginal cost of production—often zero with AI and software. But fiat systems, built on credit, can’t survive falling prices. They require inflation to prevent collapse. This core contradiction fuels societal breakdown.

Key Takeaway: The free market drives prices down. Fiat systems must manipulate money to fight this natural trend, sowing the seeds of economic distortion.

2) The Current System Is Unsustainable and Fundamentally Insolvent

Official global debt is $348T—but the real number may exceed $900T when accounting for off-balance sheet liabilities and derivatives. The system only appears functional because we believe governments will keep printing. But history shows this belief ends in control, conflict, and collapse.

Key Takeaway: The fiat system is beyond saving. Without structural change, its collapse is inevitable—potentially catalyzed by geopolitical or financial crises.

3) Bitcoin as a New System Rooted in Truth and Energy

Booth positions Bitcoin as a parallel system—not just a financial asset, but a decentralized, secure, energy-bound protocol for economic coordination. It’s:

Open and permissionless
Censorship-resistant
Secure after 16 years
Grounded in physical energy

Bitcoin aligns with deflationary truth, not inflationary illusion. It offers a global free market rooted in integrity—not control.

Key Takeaway: Bitcoin represents a fundamental break from the coercion of fiat systems, enabling truth-based, energy-grounded economic coordination at scale.

Final Thought: Build The Future You Want To Live In

Jeff Booth’s core message is simple but radical: system change begins within each of us. While centralized institutions cling to control, coercion, and artificial stability, individuals have the power to opt into a decentralized, deflationary, and hope-driven alternative. Bitcoin isn’t just an investment—it’s an invitation to participate in the first truly global free market, one that honors productivity, truth, and abundance.

THE MACRO CLASS

No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.

Best of luck out there,

— Team 42

Paradigm C And The Resilience Premium

Darius Dale recently joined Anthony Pompliano on The Pomp Podcast to discuss the recent shift towards Paradigm C, the resilience of the U.S. economy, and the evolving roles of stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin within this new policy regime. If you missed the segment, here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio:

1) Paradigm C Points to a Bull Market

Darius believes the bond market “broke” President Trump on April 9, prompting a shift away from Paradigm B’s economic pain toward Paradigm C—essentially a supercharged return to Wall Street-friendly policies. With trillions in tax cuts and supply-side incentives, this pivot supports the view that stocks may reach new all-time highs by the end of 2025.

Key Takeaway: A shift to Paradigm C increases the likelihood of a strong bull market and record highs by year-end 2025.

2) The Economy Is Stronger Than It Looks

Despite weak headline GDP, underlying data shows strength. Consumers—especially wealthier ones—still have cash to spend, and the services sector continues to drive economic resilience.

Key Takeaway: Don’t be fooled by soft GDP prints—the services sector is powering a resilient economy.

3) Policy Volatility Is the Real Risk

While current trends suggest a favorable outcome under Paradigm C, Darius warns that policymakers may misread market strength as validation, triggering a pivot back to Paradigm B’s aggressive negotiating tactics. Such a shift could destabilize the bond market and reverse recent gains in risk assets. The fragility of global capital account imbalances underscores the risk of heavy-handed tactics.

Key Takeaway: Markets may rally under Paradigm C—but incremental policy missteps could quickly reintroduce downside risk.

Final Thought: Stick To The Process

The market’s optimism hinges not just on policy outcomes, but on the clarity and consistency of those outcomes. As investors price in a shift toward Paradigm C—with its Wall Street-friendly monetary and fiscal largesse—any renewed flirtation with Paradigm B could reintroduce volatility and downside risk. Contextualizing policy signals within the context of our paradigm A-B-C framework and remaining prepared to dispassionately respond to policy pivots will be essential for navigating what comes next.

THE MACRO CLASS

No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.

Best of luck out there,

— Team 42

Can Risk Assets Achieve Escape Velocity Without Quantitative Easing?

Darius Dale recently joined Charles Payne on Fox Business to tackle one of the most pressing macro questions of the moment: Can risk assets achieve escape velocity without quantitative easing? If you missed the segment, here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio:

1) W-Shaped Market in a U-Shaped Economy

Darius emphasized that the market may be tracing out a W-shaped pattern—meaning investors should expect another leg down before a sustained rally. With the economy facing tough comps, fading fiscal support, and an ongoing tariff shock, consensus GDP and earnings estimates are likely too high and need to be revised lower. Investors should be patient and prepared to deploy capital when the market looks most vulnerable.

Key Takeaway: Don’t chase perceived bottoms. The next major buying opportunity may come after a retest aligns expectations with reality.

2) Hard Data Still Has to Catch Down to Soft Data

Soft data has already collapsed, but hard data remains relatively resilient. Dale warned that incoming quarters—particularly Q2 and Q3—are likely to show economic deterioration as lagging indicators finally roll over. The full impact of restrictive immigration, tariffs, and fiscal retrenchment is still working its way through the system.

Key Takeaway: The real slowdown is still ahead. Expect economic headlines to worsen before they improve, even if markets temporarily rally.

3) No QE… Yet. QE Is Coming If Trump Doubles Down

Whether QE is necessary depends on whether President Trump continues retreating from “Paradigm B” or doubles down on economic disruption. If he doubles down on hardcore tariff policy, the bond market will react poorly, and the Fed may be forced to re-engage liquidity support. Until then, liquidity is still abundant in the private sector—but that support is not infinite.

Key Takeaway: Fed action is not inevitable, but policy uncertainty leaves the door open.

Final Thought: Intent And Execution

Markets are entering a critical phase. As Darius outlines, the path forward hinges not just on macro fundamentals but on political intent and policy execution. Whether risk assets can achieve escape velocity without QE will depend on discipline from policymakers.

THE MACRO CLASS

No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.

Best of luck out there,

— Team 42

How Liberation Day Changed Everything

Darius Dale recently joined Jesse Day on Commodity Culture to explain why Liberation Day marks the most transformational economic event since Lehman Bros. went bankrupt in 2008. If you missed the conversation, here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio:

1) The Trump Put Is Active—But at a Cost

Darius explains that recent Treasury and currency market moves resembled an emerging-market style capital flight — a clear break from historical norms. With global investors selling U.S. assets, the Trump administration was forced to activate a “Trump Put” and slow its economic reorganization strategy.

Key Takeaway:
The U.S. faces a capital war, not just a trade war — reshaping global capital flows and weakening U.S. financial dominance.

2) Gold Is Replacing Treasuries as a Defensive Anchor

Seeing growing fragilities, Darius repositioned 42 Macro’s systematic KISS portfolio out of Treasuries and into gold last October. Gold is rapidly gaining ground as a reserve asset for central banks, signaling a structural shift in safe-haven demand as trust in U.S. debt erodes.

Key Takeaway:
Gold is emerging as the new store of value in a world that is becoming less inclined to capitalize U.S. fiscal and monetary largesse.

3) The Fourth Turning is Accelerating

Today’s macro landscape fits the classic Fourth Turning pattern: rising deficits, sticky inflation, declining globalization, and surging volatility. Markets are still set for big rallies — but also sharper drawdowns amid historically elevated economic, policy, and geopolitical uncertainty.

Key Takeaway:
Investors must prepare for bigger swings, persistent inflation, and an unwinding of American financial exceptionalism.

Final Thought: Crossing the Threshold

Markets have crossed a major threshold. As Darius highlights, Liberation Day revealed the cracks in U.S. financial leadership and accelerated the global pivot to alternative stores of value. Navigating the Fourth Turning will demand more than conviction — it will require a disciplined, adaptive strategy.

THE MACRO CLASS

No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.

Best of luck out there,

— Team 42

Capital At A Crossroads

Darius Dale recently joined Julia La Roche for a timely conversation unpacking the Trump administration’s pro-Wall Street-pivot, growing fragility in U.S. capital markets, and how investors should think about positioning in a Fourth Turning world. If you missed the conversation , here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio:

1) The Trump Put Is Active—But at a Cost

Trump’s softened stance on tariffs and Powell confirms the bond market—not the stock market—forced a pivot. The administration appears to be shifting from Main Street-focused reform—aka “Paradigm B”—to Paradigm C: deregulation, debt-financed tax cuts, and continued fiscal largesse.

Key Takeaway:
Markets are celebrating the pivot, but it suggests a renewed dependence on policy largesse that is largely favorable for Wall Street rather than structural change that is largely favorable for Main Street.

2) Foreign Capital Is Watching Closely

With over 30% of Treasuries held by foreign investors and a $24T net international investment deficit, the U.S. is as vulnerable to capital outflows as any major economy in modern world history. Treasury market dislocations and growing capital outflows resemble emerging-market-style stress. Maintaining investor confidence is becoming more urgent.

Key Takeaway:
The Fed may ultimately need to step in with yield curve control or large-scale asset purchases if foreign demand continues to wane.

3) A New Phase of the Fourth Turning Is Here

Darius notes that generational fatigue with legacy leadership is accelerating, especially in light of perceived policy failures across multiple administrations. The Fourth Turning dynamic is sharpening, with increasing political, economic, and social volatility.

Key Takeaway:
Investors should expect greater uncertainty—but also opportunity—as long-term realignments continue to manifest.

Final Thought: Stay Systematic

Darius sees markets at a critical juncture, where capital outflows, geopolitical fractures, and generational turnover are reshaping macro risk. As he emphasized, understanding the erosion of U.S. fiscal privilege and the deeper forces of the Fourth Turning is foundational. The next repricing won’t just be about growth or inflation—it will reflect how capital responds to a system under stress. Stay vigilant, stay systematic.

THE MACRO CLASS

No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.

Best of luck out there,

— Team 42