Insights

Understand the current market trends with the latest news, strategies, and analysis.
US Economy 3 mins
03/01/2024

Will The US Economy Enter A Recession?

Darius sat down with Chris Berg recently to discuss the outlook for asset markets, the probability of a recession, the Fourth Turning, and more. 

If you missed the interview, here are three takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio: 

1. The US Economy Is Likely to Avoid A Recession In 2024 If Productivity Growth Remains Above Trend

Productivity, as measured by output per hour in the US labor market, is showing robust growth at 2.7% year-over-year, surpassing the 10-year, 30-year, and 50-year…

US Markets 3 mins
02/26/2024

How Long Will The Fed Hold?

A look into the recent regime change from GOLDILOCKS to REFLATION, NVIDIA earnings, and how PBOC policies have affected asset markets.

Global Macro 3 mins
02/21/2024

Navigating Shifts In Global Liquidity

A glimpse into upcoming global liquidity trends, specifically in the U.S. and China, and what they mean for asset markets.

Global Markets 3 mins
02/06/2024

Navigating Bullish Horizons

Darius sat down with Erik S Townsend and Patrick Ceresna on Macro Voices last week to discuss our systematic portfolio construction process, corporate profits, fiscal policy, and more. 

If you missed the interview, here are three takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio: 

1. A Rebound In Corporate Profits And Productivity Growth Suggests The Probability of A Soft Landing Remains High

The 42 Macro Corporate Profitability model, which tracks the spread between Gross Domestic Income growth minus the spread between Unit Labor Cost growth and Productivity…

US Markets
02/05/2024

Is There Still A Risk of Recession?

Exploring the interplay between reduced worker turnover signaling economic expansion, the low probability of a recession , and the optimistic outlook for asset markets.

Global Economy 3 mins
02/01/2024

Green Shoots or Rising Risk?

An outlook on asset markets, the probability of a soft landing, the strength of global economies, and more.

US Economy 2 min
01/31/2024

The Massive Stock Market Rally Is Pricing In A Soft Landing

Darius sat down with Mike Ippolito last week to discuss the private sector balance sheet, how the election year will impact asset markets, Bitcoin, and more.  

If you missed the interview, here are three takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio: 

1. The Private Sector Balance Sheet Has Remained Resilient

Currently, household balance sheets are exceptionally flush with cash reserves. 

Similarly, household leverage is cyclically depressed, and the Debt-Service Ratio for households is structurally…