Is Paradigm C Outweighing The Fed’s Policy Missteps?
Darius Dale recently joined Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business Network to break down why investors should stay long risk assets amid a historic policy shift. The multiple hundred-plus billion dollar investment commitments stemming from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs—paired with sweeping deregulation and tax incentives—are reinforcing the pro-growth “Paradigm C” regime 42 Macro has championed since late April.
If you missed the discussion, here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio:

1) Paradigm C Remains The Modal Outcome
The Trump administration’s strategy is to grow its way out of the debt problem through a combination of broad-based deregulation, tax cuts, and a wave of foreign direct investment into the U.S. (reshoring). Investors who stand in the way of this growth agenda will lose money over the long term, and many are still under positioned for this durable, positive shock to growth.
Key Takeaway: Paradigm C policies are structurally bullish for growth over at least a 12–18-month time horizon, and positioning should reflect that.
2) The Fed Is Already Behind The Curve—Rate Cuts Are Overdue
Darius labeled the Powell Fed’s current stance as its fifth major policy mistake, noting that rate cuts should have already been implemented—a view his former client, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, agrees with. He sees markets looking ahead to a potential new Fed chair under President Trump—one who understands the need for lower rates and a higher inflation target.
Key Takeaway: The Fed’s delay in cutting rates risks a faster growth slowdown, but markets continue to rally behind anticipated change at the Federal Reserve.
3) Every Dip Is A Buying Opportunity Amid Paradigm C
Rather than reacting to each trade headline in isolation, investors should see the Trump administration’s aggressive trade strategy as part of a broader, intentional policy sequence that is drawing record foreign direct investment back to the U.S. This context is essential for navigating short-term volatility while staying aligned with the structural growth tailwinds of Paradigm C.
Key Takeaway: Investors must keep the broader framework of Paradigm C at the forefront during any corrections that may materialize in the coming months.

Final Thought: “KISS” Your Portfolio Before It’s Too Late
The Fed’s reluctance to cut rates risks compounding policy error, even as deregulation, tariffs, and record investment inflows continue to power Paradigm C’s pro-growth trajectory. In a market shaped by rapid policy sequencing and shifting monetary dynamics, investors need a framework that filters out headline noise and stays aligned with the regime’s enduring tailwinds.
If you are not confident your portfolio is positioned correctly for the evolving macro landscape, partner with 42 Macro for data-driven insights and proven risk management overlays—KISS and Dr. Mo—to help you stay on the right side of market risk.
No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.
Best of luck out there,
— Team 42
This Is Why Systematic Investors Are Outperforming
Darius Dale recently joined our friends Adam Taggart and Luke Gromen on Thoughtful Money to deliver a high-conviction update on the state of the U.S. economic and policy regimes. He challenged the growth recession consensus, articulated the implications of fiscal dominance, and emphasized the importance of disciplined positioning. Through the lens of 42 Macro’s systematic frameworks—KISS and Dr. Mo—Darius laid out why risk assets remain supported. Bears must use any near-term weakness to recalibrate accordingly.
If you missed the discussion, here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio:

1) The U.S. Economy Is Slowing, But Highly Unlikely To Enter Recession
Darius dismantled recession narratives with data-driven conviction. Despite continued pessimism, the macro regime remains risk-on, and market pricing reflects that.
Key Takeaway: The US economy will be fine. Positioning for contraction risks underexposure to structural upside risk amid our Paradigm C theme, which we authored back in April.
2) The Fed’s Reaction Function Will Likely Evolve
The independence of monetary policy is likely to diminish over the long term. “The Fed must become a reactive entity—boxed in by the fiscal dominance regime.” The bar for renewed tightening remains high—supporting a pro-risk asset environment.
Key Takeaway: The Fed will eventually be forced to adapt to fiscal dominance. Policy support is structurally more dovish than consensus appreciates.
3) Narrative Investing Is Dangerous—Process Must Prevail
Successful macro investing demands discipline and repeatability. “At 42 Macro, we rely on repeatable tools to measure and map macro cycles—not subjective narratives.” Using KISS and Dr. Mo, 42 Macro identifies investment opportunities grounded in growth, inflation, and liquidity dynamics—avoiding undue risks in the process.
Key Takeaway: Investors must increasingly reject the use of fundamental research views to risk manage portfolios. The historically wide distribution of probable economic and policy outcomes means regime-aware, systematic frameworks are essential to navigate this Fourth Turning polycrisis.

Final Thought: Navigating What Comes Next
As Darius warns, the speed of change is rapid. This means conviction must be earned through process—not opinion. In a rapidly evolving world, discipline doesn’t just provide conviction—it generates alpha.
If you are not confident your portfolio is positioned correctly for the evolving macro landscape, partner with 42 Macro for data-driven insights and proven risk management overlays—KISS and Dr. Mo—to help you stay on the right side of market risk.
No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.
Best of luck out there,
— Team 42
Is Your Portfolio Positioned for the Economy to Run Hot?
Darius Dale joined Maggie Lake Talking Markets with a clear message: markets are undergoing a structural shift—and investors still clinging to recession fears risk ending up on the wrong side of risk. He explained why 42 Macro’s systematic frameworks—Dr. Mo and KISS—continue to flag risk-on signals across global financial markets.
If you missed the discussion, here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio:

1) We Are Likely Headed Into An Economic Boom
Darius challenged the recession narrative head-on: “Labor hoarding, real wages going up, household balance sheets still resilient, and the administration is pulling every lever it can to support demand.” Despite incessant “bear porn” from the media and financial pundits, he emphasized this is a market that is correctly pricing pending economic strength, not collapse.
Key Takeaway: The U.S. economy is likely not L-shaped, it’s U-shaped, and investors that are not positioned for this upside risk will continue to underperform.
2) Paradigm C Continues To Dominate
“We authored the Paradigm C theme—and now it’s becoming THE theme across Wall Street.” Darius described a policy regime defined by persistent fiscal and monetary largesse, reshoring, and broad-based deregulation—each representing a tool the administration is using to engineer the economic “golden age” it promised on the campaign trail.
Key Takeaway: Paradigm C features policies already in motion and is not just a framework. Investor positioning must reflect this reality, not resist it.
3) Narrative-Based Investing Is Fragile
“It’s our job as investors to identify at all times where we are in those five cycles—growth, inflation, monetary policy, fiscal policy, and liquidity—and in relation to the sixth cycle that matters, which is positioning.” Darius cautioned against reacting to Powell headlines, tariff scares, or short-term volatility. Discipline, not distraction, wins in this regime.
Key Takeaway: Investors must be systematic, not sentimental, if they want to stay on the right side of macro and market regime shifts.

Final Thought: Tune Out the Noise
“The market is pricing in a boom—and it’s right to,” Darius concluded. With pro-growth policy, sticky inflation, and ample liquidity, risks remain skewed to the upside. 42 Macro helps investors systematically cut through the noise and focus on what drives markets.
If you are not confident your portfolio is positioned correctly for the evolving macro landscape, partner with 42 Macro for data-driven insights and proven risk management overlays—KISS and Dr. Mo—to help you stay on the right side of market risk.
No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.
Best of luck out there,
— Team 42
Is The Next Big Move In Markets Higher Or Lower?
Darius Dale joined Adam Taggart on Thoughtful Money last week to lay out why investor consensus may be under-positioned for substantial upside risk. He argued that Wall Street’s outdated pie chart and target date asset allocation strategies are a liability in today’s increasingly complex macro environment and made the case for why 42 Macro’s KISS—“Keep It Simple & Systematic”—model portfolio helps retail investors manage risk like many of the top hedge funds, which are also clients of 42 Macro. If you missed the discussion, here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio:
1) Traditional Risk Assets Are the New Safe Havens
Darius emphasized that traditional “safe” assets like U.S. Treasuries and U.S. dollars are increasingly risky in a Fourth Turning polycrisis. With foreign demand for Treasuries declining and U.S. fiscal deficits set to widen under Paradigm C, bonds face structural headwinds. By contrast, stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin—often labeled “risky”—are increasingly the assets best positioned to preserve and grow wealth.
Key Takeaway: The key risk facing investors today is staying anchored to assets that can’t preserve and grow real purchasing power during a Fourth Turning polycrisis.
2) The Growth Surprise Is Still Ahead
Consensus expects stagnation—but Darius sees a policy-fueled “sugar high” driven by retroactive tax cuts, deregulation of the energy, financial services, and tech sectors, and an increasingly asymmetric dovish bias from the Fed. He expects markets to capitulate to stronger growth, dragging earnings and valuations higher into and through 2026.
Key Takeaway: While consensus is still bracing for recession, astute investors like 42 Macro clients have been preparing for a powerful growth-driven re-rating across risk assets for over two months.
3) KISS Outperforms Wall Street’s “Safe” Models—In Both Return And Risk Metrics
Darius walked through the performance stats of KISS, showing how it captures ~250% of upside with just ~50% of downside compared to traditional 60/40 portfolios. From 2018 onward, KISS has delivered ~24% annualized returns vs. ~10% for 60/40, while experiencing less than half the drawdown. By dynamically sizing exposure to stocks, gold, and Bitcoin based on 42 Macro’s proven Market Regime Nowcasting Process and Volatility-Adjusted Momentum Signal (VAMS), KISS helps everyday investors sidestep Wall Street’s volatility drag like the best hedge funds—without paying their exorbitant fees.
Key Takeaway: KISS systematically reduces downside risk while maximizing upside participation—giving retail investors an institutional-grade risk management edge in a volatile world.

Final Thought: The Edge Is Discipline, Not Forecasting
The biggest danger isn’t volatility—it’s relying on gut instinct or outdated pie charts and/or target date asset allocations during a Fourth Turning polycrisis. KISS helps thousands of investors around the world block out the bearish noise to remain fully invested during bull markets and sleep comfortably in cash during bear markets. This is how you retire on time and comfortably.
If you are not confident your portfolio is positioned correctly for the evolving macro landscape, partner with 42 Macro for data-driven insights and proven risk management overlays—KISS and Dr. Mo—to help you stay on the right side of market risk.
No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.
Best of luck out there,
— Team 42
Is Your “Safe” Portfolio Actually Built to Fail?
Darius Dale joined Anthony Pompliano on The Pomp Podcast to unpack three major shifts in today’s macro environment. He challenged the idea that bonds and cash are safe, highlighted the decline in foreign demand for U.S. debt, and outlined why the current regime still supports staying engaged in select risk assets. If you missed the discussion, here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio:
1) Fiscal Recklessness Is Undermining U.S. Stability
Both parties are spending aggressively with no credible plan to rein in deficits. Even cutting all non-defense discretionary spending would only reduce the deficit from 7% to 5% of GDP—before the tax cuts reduce revenues (relative to baseline) further. With mounting debt and no political appetite for austerity, the long-term fiscal trajectory looks increasingly fragile.
Key Takeaway: Washington’s fiscal mismanagement is weakening U.S. credit quality and leaving fewer tools to manage future crises.
2) There Is A Geopolitically Driven Supply-Demand Imbalance In Treasuries
Foreign demand for Treasuries is fading. China, Europe, and Japan are pulling back due to strategic decoupling, re-militarization, and policy normalization, respectively. Meanwhile, assets traditionally considered “risky”—like Bitcoin, gold, and stocks—are outperforming.
Key Takeaway: As markets trudge deeper into this Fourth Turning regime, traditional “risk” assets are actually the safe havens. The real risk lies in holding bonds and cash.
3) Follow the Signals, Not the Headlines
Darius’s message is clear: stay engaged while the market regime supports it. With policymakers boxed into growing or printing their way out of structural imbalances, disciplined exposure to select risk assets is more important than ever. 42 Macro’s KISS Model Portfolio equips investors to sidestep behavioral traps and compound more effectively over time.
Key Takeaway: Avoid volatility drag and compound returns faster by remaining invested in traditional “risk” assets and only reducing exposure when the market regime tell you to.

Final Thought: The Fourth Turning Is Here
With bonds and the dollar failing to preserve capital, the definition of “safe” has changed. As the U.S. consumes an unsustainable share of global capital and shows little political will for fiscal repair, investors must rethink where real protection lies. The true risk isn’t volatility—it’s being stuck in assets with negative expected returns. As Darius notes, the Fourth Turning is more than a cycle—it’s the new investment reality.
If you are not confident your portfolio is positioned correctly for the evolving macro landscape, partner with 42 Macro for data-driven insights and proven risk management overlays—KISS and Dr. Mo—to help you stay on the right side of market risk.
No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.
Best of luck out there,
— Team 42
Paradigm C And The Resilience Premium
Darius Dale recently joined Anthony Pompliano on The Pomp Podcast to discuss the recent shift towards Paradigm C, the resilience of the U.S. economy, and the evolving roles of stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin within this new policy regime. If you missed the segment, here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio:
1) Paradigm C Points to a Bull Market
Darius believes the bond market “broke” President Trump on April 9, prompting a shift away from Paradigm B’s economic pain toward Paradigm C—essentially a supercharged return to Wall Street-friendly policies. With trillions in tax cuts and supply-side incentives, this pivot supports the view that stocks may reach new all-time highs by the end of 2025.
Key Takeaway: A shift to Paradigm C increases the likelihood of a strong bull market and record highs by year-end 2025.
2) The Economy Is Stronger Than It Looks
Despite weak headline GDP, underlying data shows strength. Consumers—especially wealthier ones—still have cash to spend, and the services sector continues to drive economic resilience.
Key Takeaway: Don’t be fooled by soft GDP prints—the services sector is powering a resilient economy.
3) Policy Volatility Is the Real Risk
While current trends suggest a favorable outcome under Paradigm C, Darius warns that policymakers may misread market strength as validation, triggering a pivot back to Paradigm B’s aggressive negotiating tactics. Such a shift could destabilize the bond market and reverse recent gains in risk assets. The fragility of global capital account imbalances underscores the risk of heavy-handed tactics.
Key Takeaway: Markets may rally under Paradigm C—but incremental policy missteps could quickly reintroduce downside risk.

Final Thought: Stick To The Process
The market’s optimism hinges not just on policy outcomes, but on the clarity and consistency of those outcomes. As investors price in a shift toward Paradigm C—with its Wall Street-friendly monetary and fiscal largesse—any renewed flirtation with Paradigm B could reintroduce volatility and downside risk. Contextualizing policy signals within the context of our paradigm A-B-C framework and remaining prepared to dispassionately respond to policy pivots will be essential for navigating what comes next.
If you are not confident your portfolio is positioned correctly for the evolving macro landscape, partner with 42 Macro for data-driven insights and proven risk management overlays—KISS and Dr. Mo—to help you stay on the right side of market risk.
No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.
Best of luck out there,
— Team 42
The End of American Exceptionalism?
Darius Dale recently joined Víctor Hugo Rodríguez on Negocios Televisión to discuss why markets may not have bottomed yet—and what needs to change before risk assets become attractive again. If you missed the appearance, here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio.
1) Markets Won’t Bottom Until Three Things Happen
Darius laid out a clear three-point checklist that must be met before investors can confidently reallocate into risk assets:
- The Fed must expand its balance sheet (i.e., QE or liquidity support).
- Consensus earnings and GDP estimates must be revised lower to reflect recession risks.
- Clarity is needed on fiscal policy—specifically, whether Trump’s tax cut package will actually be stimulative and whether the “DOGE” budget cuts will be softened.
Key Takeaway:
We’re still early in all three of these processes, meaning downside risk remains elevated over the next 2-3 quarters. Investors should expect more volatility until policymakers act decisively.
2) Foreign Demand for U.S. Assets Is Cracking
Darius warned that global capital allocators may be stepping back from U.S. Treasuries and equities. As the U.S. turns away from globalization and fiscal prudence, foreign investors are less willing to finance America’s growing deficits. With Congress potentially adding another $5-plus trillion in debt via tax cuts, this shift could put significant upward pressure on long-term yields.
Key Takeaway:
This marks the potential beginning of a structural regime shift in global capital flows—a bearish signal for bonds and a growing risk to U.S. financial stability.
3) The KISS Model Portfolio Is Positioned for Defense
Months ago, Darius moved his own allocation—and that of thousands of 42 Macro clients—into defensive posture. At the time of recording on Tuesday afternoon, the 42 Macro KISS Model Portfolio featured:
- 67.5% Cash
- 0% Stocks
- 30% Gold
- 2.5% Bitcoin
Key Takeaway:
KISS pivoted to 0% equities on March 5th, and will remain in defensive mode until it quantitatively derived volatility targeting and dynamic position sizing signals inflect. The strategy is designed to minimize drawdowns and preserve capital during cyclical bear markets—while also participating in bull markets.


Final Thought: Wait for the Signal, Not the Noise
Markets are still searching for footing in a rapidly shifting macro landscape. As Darius makes clear, this isn’t a moment for hero trades or blind optimism — it’s a moment for discipline. Until we see a dovish policy pivot, meaningful earnings downgrades, and/or clarity on fiscal direction, staying defensive isn’t just smart — it’s necessary. Risk-on will have its time, but we’re not there yet. Let the checklist, not emotions, guide you.
If you are not confident your portfolio is positioned correctly for the evolving macro landscape, partner with 42 Macro for data-driven insights and proven risk management overlays—KISS and Dr. Mo—to help you stay on the right side of market risk.
No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.
Best of luck out there,
— Team 42
Is the Bull Run Over?—Darius Dale on Macro Shocks & Market Tops
Darius Dale, 42 Macro Founder & CEO, recently joined InvestAnswers to break down the recent market volatility, the risks of macro shocks, and how investors should be thinking about the current market cycle. If you missed the podcast, here are three key takeaways that have huge implications for your portfolio:
1) Markets Are at a Tipping Point—Liquidity Holds the Key
While recent volatility has spooked investors, the bigger question is whether liquidity will continue to rise or start contracting. If liquidity expands, markets can push higher. If it stalls or reverses, risk assets could face severe pressure. Investors should watch the BOJ closely for the latest clues on liquidity amid the developing US growth scare. The sharp selloff in early-August is a preview of what may be in store for investors.
Key Takeaway:
Liquidity is the key driver—watch for shifts in fiscal policy, the FED’s [needed] countercyclical response, and global monetary policy to gauge where markets go next.
2) Tariffs, Policy Uncertainty, and Inflation Are the Big Unknowns
The Trump administration’s tariff plans and rapidly shifting policy stance could disrupt supply chains and push inflation higher before any pro-growth measures take effect. The Fed may be forced to delay an appropriate policy response due to sticky inflation, keeping rates higher for longer and creating liquidity pressures.
Key Takeaway:
Markets are grappling with uncertainty—investors must stay aware of how policy shifts could perpetuate a stagflationary shock.
3) AI & Macro Trends Will Reshape the Investment Landscape
Darius warns that AI-driven job displacement and structural fiscal challenges could accelerate The Fourth Turning. That outcome risks increasing economic and financial market volatility, while also supporting secular bull markets in assets like Bitcoin, Gold, and AI-driven equities.
Key Takeaway:
Positioning for the future means embracing AI, Gold, Bitcoin, and sound risk management as the macro landscape rapidly evolves.
Final Thought: Navigating a Shifting Macro Landscape
Liquidity will likely rise through mid-2025, but it may not rise fast enough to offset the rapidly accelerating global debt refinancing cycle. Key structural risks—fiscal imbalances, inflation pressures, and geopolitical shifts—remain. Investors must be proactive in managing risk and adapting to an increasingly unpredictable macro environment.
If you are not confident your portfolio is positioned correctly for the evolving macro landscape , partner with 42 Macro’s data-driven insights and risk management overlays—KISS and Dr. Mo—processes to help you stay on the right side of market risk.
THE MACRO CLASS
No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.
Best of luck out there,
— Team 42
Market Liquidity, 0DTE Options, and the New Volatility Paradigm
Darius recently sat down with Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma for a fascinating discussion on how options-driven leverage, zero-day options (0DTE), and shifting market structure are reshaping investment opportunities. If you missed it, here are the three most important takeaways that could significantly impact your portfolio:
1) Short-Term Leverage Is Driving Market Volatility—But It’s Not Changing the Trend
The explosion of 0DTE options and leveraged derivatives trading has created frequent, extreme price dislocations in individual stocks and the broader market. Brent explains how these short-term trading flows cause sharp intraday swings, leading investors to misinterpret market reactions to news events like CPI reports or earnings releases. However, while these distortions can be dramatic, they rarely change the medium-to-long-term market trend—meaning that many investors are getting shaken out of positions unnecessarily.
Key Takeaway:
Don’t overreact to short-term volatility. While markets may experience more frequent and violent moves due to the explosive growth of options activity, the underlying trend remains the dominant force. Investors who focus too much on short-term swings risk missing out on durable market trends.
2) Volatility Is Cheap—But That Presents Opportunities
Despite recent market swings, implied volatility remains historically low, signaling that investors are not properly hedging against risks. Brent highlights how right-tail risks (markets moving much higher) are currently underpriced, making call options a compelling opportunity. On the flip side, selective put spreads can offer inexpensive downside protection for investors looking to hedge without taking on too much drag.
Key Takeaway:
With volatility low, this is an ideal time to consider hedging strategies or capitalizing on underpriced upside exposure. Call options on key indices and AI-driven names may provide attractive asymmetric returns, while put spreads allow for cheap downside protection.
3) AI, Passive Flows, and ETF Growth Are Creating Liquidity Holes
Market liquidity is shrinking as passive flows, corporate buybacks, and structured products absorb more of the tradable float in major stocks. This means that even mega-cap names like NVIDIA can experience massive, seemingly irrational price moves (e.g., its recent $500 billion single-day market cap loss). These liquidity gaps are amplifying the impact of leveraged derivatives trades, creating both risks and opportunities for investors.
Key Takeaway:
Investors should be aware that liquidity holes are becoming more common, leading to sharp, unexpected market moves. Understanding how options-driven leverage interacts with ETF flows and passive investing is key to avoiding getting caught on the wrong side of a move—or capitalizing on mispricings when they occur.
Final Thought: The Time to Act Is Now
Markets are evolving rapidly, with AI, derivatives trading, and liquidity trends playing an increasingly dominant role. As these forces reshape market behavior, traditional risk management strategies are becoming less effective. Investors need adaptive tools—like our KISS Model Portfolio and Discretionary Risk Management Overlay (Dr. Mo)—to stay ahead of these changes and profit from the volatility rather than being caught off guard by it.
Since our bullish pivot in January 2023, the QQQs have surged 90% and Bitcoin is up +316%.
If you have missed part—or all—of this market, it is time to explore how our KISS Model Portfolio or Discretionary Risk Management Overlay aka “Dr. Mo” will keep your portfolio on the right side of market risk going forward.
Thousands of investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, accurate, and affordable signals—and as a result, they make more money.
Thousands of investors around the world use 42 Macro to confidently navigate market shifts and optimize their portfolios. If you’re ready to incorporate macro into your investment process and stay ahead of these monumental changes, we invite you to watch our complimentary 3-part Macro Masterclass.
How Will Trumponomics 2.0 Impact Investor Portfolios?
Darius recently joined Charles Payne on Fox Business to discuss the potential impact of President Trump’s economic agenda on asset markets, the importance of observing the market rather than predicting it, and more.
If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways fromthe conversation that have implications for your portfolio:
1) How Will President Trump’s Economic Policies Broadly Impact Markets in 2025?
When assessing the impact of President Trump’s economic agenda, both positive and negative effects on the economy and asset markets are likely.
Specifically, factors such as tariffs, securing the border, and a hawkish shift in Treasury net financing (i.e., less bills + more coupons) are likely to contribute negative supply shocks to the economy and asset markets. Conversely, tax cuts, deregulation, and accelerated energy production could generate positive supply shocks.
Investors should closely monitor the size, sequence, and scope of these policy changes, as they will play a crucial role in shaping asset markets throughout 2025.
2) What is The Likely Impact of Tariffs on Asset Markets?
Although many Wall Street investors cite the Smoot-Hawley example when discussing tariffs, we believe anchoring on that scenario is misguided. The real impact lies in the currency market. China is likely to respond to fresh tariffs by significantly devaluing the yuan, which carries profound implications for global asset markets. Historically, when China devalues the yuan, other major economies follow suit with sympathy devaluations to maintain competitiveness, resulting in a much stronger U.S. dollar.
If a similar pattern emerges in 2025, this would likely lead to a reduction in global liquidity, which is problematic for asset markets in the context of the global refinancing air pocket that may develop later this year.
3) Should Investors Focus On Observing The Market Rather Than Predicting It?
In short, yes. Our number one piece of advice for every investor is: Listen to what the market is telling you. Because asset markets trend far more frequently than they experience changes in trend, it is always best to align your portfolio with what the market is trying to price in, not against it. The trend is your friend.
Whether we are in an inflationary or deflationary environment, the most consistently successful strategy across all market conditions is trend following.
To successfully remain on the right side of market risk, investors must rely on signals from proven risk management systems (e.g., KISS and Dr. Mo) far more than their gut feel, emotions, or understanding of company or economy fundamentals.
Since our bullish pivot in January 2023, the QQQs have surged 81% and Bitcoin is up +328%.
If you have fallen victim to bear porn and missed part—or all—of this rally, it is time to explore how our KISS Model Portfolio or Discretionary Risk Management Overlay aka “Dr. Mo” will keep your portfolio on the right side of market risk going forward.
Thousands of investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, accurate, and affordable signals—and as a result, they make more money.
If you are ready to learn more about how our clients incorporate macro into their investment process and how you can do the same, we invite you to watch our complimentary 3-part macro masterclass.
No catch, just macro insights to help you grow your portfolio—our way of saying thanks for being part of our global #Team42 community of thoughtful investors.
Best of luck out there,
— Team 42