Darius sat down with Andy Constan last week on 42 Macro’s Pro to Pro discussion to explore the US Treasury, fiscal stimulus, and the US dollar.
If you missed the interview, here are three takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:
1. While The US Treasury Has Been Capitalizing on Strong Demand for Short-Term T-Bills, It Is Also Considering Issuing Longer-Term Coupon Bonds
Although the US Treasury has continued to flood the market with T-bills over the past three quarters to tap into excess demand via the Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility, they may begin to issue longer-term coupons.
The decision to issue more long-term debt is influenced by the current low or negative term premium, which makes issuing longer-term bonds cheaper for the Treasury.
2. Fiscal Stimulus, Which Has Been A Major Contributing Factor to The Resiliency of Household Income, Has Peaked
In 2023, the US economy featured a record non-war, non-recession budget deficit.
However, the impulse peaked earlier in 2023 and has shown signs of moderation: the budget deficit on a YTD, YoY basis was up $834 billion in June, $535 billion in August, and now only $255 billion in October.
As a result of the slowing impulse, we believe we will return to more typical levels of government spending and budget deficits.
The challenges faced by investors due to the previously high levels of Treasury debt issuance are likely behind us… for now.
3. Is The US Dollar Entering A Bear Market?
We expect the US Dollar to decline if we continue to get data that supports a soft landing.
Additionally, our research suggests the US dollar is overvalued on a real effective exchange rate basis and relative to current inflation dynamics and that the path of least resistance for the dollar is down.
However, the Fed is currently adopting a more restrictive policy than the rest of many central banks worldwide, supporting the dollar.
This approach tends to attract foreign investment seeking higher returns, which increases the demand for and drives up the value of the U.S. dollar.
While there is a push-pull between these dynamics, we believe there is a credible path to a bear market for the US dollar.
That’s a wrap!
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