Darius sat down with Mike Ippolito last week to discuss the private sector balance sheet, how the election year will impact asset markets, Bitcoin, and more.
If you missed the interview, here are three takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:
1. The Private Sector Balance Sheet Has Remained Resilient
Currently, household balance sheets are exceptionally flush with cash reserves.
Similarly, household leverage is cyclically depressed, and the Debt-Service Ratio for households is structurally depressed.
In fact, the last time the U.S. witnessed such a substantial proportion of cash on both corporate and household balance sheets was in the 1950s.
These levels of cash on balance sheets underpin the resilience of the U.S. economy, and we believe the recent monetary tightening we have experienced to this point has been mostly noise.
2. Both The Election And Fiscal Policy From Yellen Will Likely Be Supportive of Asset Markets This Year
Historically, election years tend to be positive for asset markets, with the 12-month returns leading up to elections averaging around 8%.
Interestingly, when a Democrat incumbent is in office, the median return doubles to approximately 15% in the 12 months leading up to the election.
We believe investors can anticipate positive outcomes for asset markets throughout 2024, with election optimism being a contributing factor.
Additionally, when considering the Treasury’s recent decisions to support liquidity, we can expect continued positive outcomes in asset markets until that changes.
3. We Believe Bitcoin Will Experience Positive Inflows As Long As We Remain In A Risk On Regime
As long as the economy is in a GODLICKS or REFLATION regime, we can anticipate capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market.
Additionally, we have experienced a significant increase in liquidity since October that has notably benefited Bitcoin.
Since then, global liquidity has been on an upward trajectory, supported by liquidity from both the commercial banking sector and the non-banking financial sector.
Furthermore, leading indicators for the liquidity cycle suggest that we are likely to continue seeing positive drivers for liquidity in the medium term.
However, it is important to note that a shift in the narrative surrounding inflation could pose challenges for asset markets.
That’s a wrap!
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