Darius recently sat down with Anthony Pompliano to discuss inflation, its direction, and its effect on asset markets.
If you missed the interview, here are three takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:
1. Headline CPI Is Accelerating Again, Primarily Due to Energy
Last month, the 3-month annualized growth rate of headline inflation spiked from just under 2% to 3.9%.
A material increase in energy inflation drove the move.
Until last month, the three-month annualized rate of energy inflation had been negative for approximately one year; the August CPI report indicated an energy inflation increase of 25.4% on a 3-month annualized basis.
We expect the increase in energy inflation to persist as Brent crude oil continues its upward momentum.
2. Core CPI Continues to Decelerate, Primarily Due to Shelter
While Headline CPI is increasing, Core CPI, a measure that excludes some of the most volatile components like food and energy prices and therefore provides a clearer view of the underlying trend in inflation, is decreasing.
Last Wednesday’s report showed that:
- Core CPI decelerated to 2.4% on a 3-month annualized basis – the lowest reading since 2021.
- Core Goods CPI inflected negative to -1.9% on a 3-month annualized basis.
- Shelter Inflation materially impacted Core CPI as it declined from just over 5% to 4.4% on a 3-month annualized basis.
3. Producer Price Inflation Is Back on The Rise Again And May Also Represent The Vanguard of Sticky Inflation
PPI, which measures price changes from the producer’s perspective, accelerated to 4.2% on a 3-month annualized basis – the highest value since the first half of last year.
Leading underlying measures of inflation like Super Core PPI are beginning to show upside momentum and we are starting to see the first signs that inflation is potentially bottoming out.
The return of inflation is negative for asset markets – with it comes a stronger dollar and greater bond market volatility, both of which are headwinds for any increase in global liquidity.
That’s a wrap!
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