Insights

This week, investors are weighing renewed optimism surrounding the AI-driven Productivity Boom against mounting pressure in housing and global bond markets.

Better-than-expected SpaceX results and Anthropic’s S-1 filing challenged the durability and severity of the current risk-off INFLATION Market Regime. Early third-quarter earnings and Anthropic’s historic commitments to secure computing capacity also reinforced 42 Macro’s view that the U.S. remains in the early innings of a corporate-profit-boosting investment cycle.

September housing starts fell 5.2%, building permits declined 0.2%, and pending home sales plunged to an all-time low. In our view, the housing market is unlikely to recover meaningfully given that upward pressure on rates is a…

The United States may need cooperation, not escalation, to prevent losing ground to China in the manufactured “AI race.”

Ahead of this week’s meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, reports suggest both countries may pursue narrow safeguards around AI cybersecurity, data leaks, and national security. Neither side wants to slow technological progress, but both appear increasingly willing to address shared risks.

That potential cooperation follows constructive discussions on AI, trade, and investment—and could help stabilize U.S.–China relations. At the same time, a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would ease another major source of geopolitical and market uncertainty.

Together, these developments are increasing the…